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Assessing the Requirements and Likelihood of Secession

I'm really not hostile to the idea of secession. Once one state successfully does it, there will be a mad rush for the door. The Union would be over. Unlike 1860, I guarantee Federal government will not take part in a war to stop a state from doing it. There might be one within the state and then the Federal government *would* step in. But if they had a referendum a clear mandate... they'd probably pull it off. Especially a big state like California, Texas, or New York.

But I don't think people recognize what an temporary economic catastrophe it would be. We have a lot of national debt, but most of it is held by Americans. That Federal debt counts as an asset for a lot people and organizations. If the Union dissolved those assets vanish from the economy. Destroyed. Social Security, Medicare, Disability... these are all personal assets. True, they are drawing those assets from their great grand children and beyond. It's a Ponzi scheme. But people can't see that at a…